- Global liquidity is beneficial for investment climate
- Bull market in equities continues
- Recommendations for the global markets: equities (in Europe, USA, China, India), government bonds (Spain, Ireland) and corporate bonds (non-financial high yields)
- Growth in CEE2 in the second half of the year
- ATX target: 2,650 points by the end of the year
- Favourites for Austria & CEE: CA-Immobilien, RHI, Flughafen Wien, MOL, LUKoil, Azoty Tarnów, PKO BP
The analysts of Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) hope for an economic recovery in the second half of this year. „Economic activity in Europe, and in the USA, remains sluggish. Although leading indicators, such as the ISM and the ifo index, are continuously pointing to better sentiment amongst companies, the improvement has yet to be confirmed by hard facts, such as new orders", said Peter Brezinschek, head of Raiffeisen Research. Nevertheless, the Research expert is confident. Even before mid-year, net exports should bring the first signs of economic growth and subsequently stimulate investments.
The robust labour market and good wage developments for employees in the core Eurozone countries around Germany are further arguments pointing to an upward trend in private consumption. "The decline in the inflation rate in 2013 will open up more leeway for gains in real income. Still, income effects are only expected to start playing a role from 2014 onwards", said Brezinschek. This year's GDP forecasts for the Eurozone look poor at first glance, with negative performance in the prognoses of minus 0.1 per cent because the first half-year might pass rather cautiously. On the whole, the overall trend in the coming 12-18 months should point higher. The divergence in economic activity within the Eurozone will likely last somewhat longer. The budget cuts implemented in the USA in March are compatible with the Research analysts' GDP projection of 1.5 per cent for 2013.
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