- Liquidity is driving the markets
- Global monetary policy remains heavily expansive
- Recommendation (Timeline: end of the 1st quarter 2013.)for the global market: shares (in Europe, Japan, USA), government bonds (Spain) and corporate bonds
- Revised growth outlook for CEE
- Falling interest rate trend in CEE
- Buy recommendations for Austrian and CEE shares: RHI, CA Immo, Bogdanka, Ciech and MTS
"Falling profit estimates, continuing recession in Europe, which is also reaching the core Euro states, and no final breakthrough on the Eurozone debt issue, yet risky assets confirmed their upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2012. This discrepancy is expected to continue at the beginning of 2013," said Peter Brezinschek, head of Raiffeisen Research, a unit of Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI).
For Brezinschek, the GDP figures for the Eurozone show the sharpest fall in the economic cycle in the final quarter of 2012 and a clear adjustment in growth is also to be taken into consideration for the USA. The leading indicators (Purchasing Managers'- and ISM-Index) are bottoming out and should start to climb again in the first half of the year. The conclusion: stagnation in the Eurozone and marginal growth in the US market for the winter quarter of 2013.
"From the middle of the year, therefore, net exports and - due to falling inflation rates - private consumption could start adding to growth again," said chief-analyst Peter Brezinschek. The GDP of the Eurozone should gradually rise to 0.1 per cent (per quarter) in Q2 and then to 0.4 per cent (per quarter) from Q3. GDP growth in the USA should climb from 0.2 (Q1) to 0.5 per cent (Q3).
Pleasing news from the peripheral countries: the structural reforms put in place are gradually taking effect and the Research team therefore expects growth rates in these countries to start inching up again from the second half of 2013. Italy still represents an uncertainty factor, as a new government is to be voted in there shortly. Inflation is also showing signs of easing. "Inflation rates are expected to head downwards in two stages, once at the beginning of the year and again in the third quarter. This applies to both Europe and the USA," added Brezinschek.
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